The weather forecast in Berlin predicted rain every day last week, but the sun shone.
How reliable are forecasts?
A bad meteorologist just shows you numbers.
An okay meteorologist talks about numbers and emerging patterns.
A good meteorologist connects the numbers and patterns into a story.
Now a GREAT meteorologist connects the numbers and patterns, tells a story, but also goes outside to smell the air. Does it smell like rain?
It’s no different for leaders. Forecasts are indications based on data and patterns, but we know they can be wrong - an unexpected storm, a surprising front, Covid 19.
Don’t forget to go outside and smell the air.